The days of cheap energy and cheap oil are over. We cannot continue to to rely on foreign oil and to empower out enemies by subsidizing their activities through trillion dollar oil purchases. If we do, we will be living in an energy poor, third world country, called America. – Robert C. Hackney, Executive Director, Alternative Energy Association.
| Why America needs an Electric/Natural Gas Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle |
and why Florida should lead the way in its creation
By: Robert C. Hackney
August 31, 2008
America needs an electric/natural gas plug-in hybrid vehicle. While energy consumption and potential shortages are becoming more obvious problems to the general public, the most pressing area of concern is in the transportation sector. Many Americans now recognize that we are on the verge of a liquid fuel crisis.
Based on consumption rates and growth rates of emerging economies, a major crisis in availability of petroleum fuel could occur as soon as 2011-2012. Americans need to be ready for this situation and need to develop contingency transportation plans. While there are a number of viable short and long term plans, we believe that the best solution lies in existing technologies that are available here and now, not in some distant future which is dependent upon further research and development.
According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, there were approximately 234 million light duty vehicles in service in America in 2006.[1] A light duty vehicle is defined as a passenger car, SUV, light truck or minivan. In 2006, these 234 million light duty vehicles accounted for over 45% of the U.S. transportation sector’s oil consumption.[2]
According to the CIA World Factbook, the United States consumed 20.8 million barrels of oil per day in 2006.[3] Based on America’s oil consumption, the nation’s 234 million light duty vehicles accounted for the consumption of approximately 9.36 million barrels of oil per day.
A lack of availability of gasoline resulting in a shortage of as little as 10% of that amount, would undoubtedly create inconvenience at the least, and chaos at the worst. Our solution is aimed at replacing ten percent of the current gasoline being consumed by light duty vehicles by 2012, and does not even take into consideration any potential growth in the sector.Keeping in mind that the oil embargo of the 1970s reduced our supply by only 5%, a plan to replace 10% will be the minimum necessary and is achievable by 2012, if we begin now.
While it is difficult to put an exact figure on the financial effect of a 10% reduction in oil consumption, the cost of 20.8 million barrels of oil per day, at a market cost of $100 per barrel, is $2.08 billion per day, or $759,200,000,000 per year ($759.2 billion). At a market cost of $150 per barrel, the cost is $3.12 billion per day, or $1.34 trillion per year. Therefore, a 10% savings at $100 per barrel would be $75.9 billion per year, and at a per barrel price of $150, the savings would be $134 billion per year. That’s a lot of money to spend at home on development of energy independence, and a lot of money to keep out of the hands of countries who don’t like us.
Hybrid Vehicles in General
The best hope for the transportation sector will be the availability of hybrid vehicles. A study conducted by Alliance Bernstein, a respected Wall Street research firm, in 2006 concluded that hybrids are the future of light duty transportation.[4] Even Google has announced plans to develop its own plug in hybrid.[5] Not wanting to be left out, the Chinese automaker BYD Auto has announced the introduction of a production model mid-size sedan plug-in hybrid.[6]
The public, however, has varying views of just what a hybrid is and how it works. A recent study by two UC-Davis researchers who are part of the Institute of Transportation [7] found that there is confusion among the general public regarding how a hybrid functions. While there are no commercially produced plug in hybrids as of mid-2008, the majority of the general public believes that the hybrids being produced and sold today are of a type that can be plugged in and recharged via the electric grid. The hybrid vehicles presently in production use a system that recharges the batteries without the use of a plug in function. With the addition of a charger and additional batteries, a plug-in hybrid vehicle can increase it electric drive range, which results in a much higher fuel efficiency as it relates to the use of its gasoline engine.
The UC-Davis study also identified five distinct characteristics of hybrids and determined that the most important feature of a hybrid for a majority of those surveyed was fuel efficiency, expressed in terms of the equivalent of 100+ miles per gallon of gasoline. The least important factor to those surveyed was recharge time, which translates to o real preference for charging in four hours versus eight hours. Our assumption is that most individuals would charge their vehicles at home overnight. This also keeps charging from occurring during peak power periods, typically at rates that are also lower than peak times.Studies indicate that over 60% of daily driving is within a 30 mile range.[8] By increasing the range of the electric propulsion system, less gasoline is consumed. (This does not take into account the amount of electricity consumed in the charging mode.) For example, a Toyota Prius hybrid getting 40-50 miles per gallon was transformed into a plug in hybrid by a group of engineers, resulting in a vehicle capable of obtaining 100+ miles per gallon.[9]
We now know that plug in hybrids capable of this fuel efficiency are not only possible, but have been created. In the near future, it is anticipate that such vehicles will be mass produced by major automobile manufacturers.
The Florida Solution
Our solution takes the plug-in hybrid concept one step further, and to what we believe to be the logical conclusion in the evolution of hybrid vehicles.
The technology has existed for decades to use compressed natural gas instead of gasoline to run an internal combustion engine. Many existing production model internal combustion engines are easily converted to run on natural gas. According to NGV America, there are approximately 8.7 million natural gas vehicles in the world. In the U.S. there are presently approximately 120,000 such vehicles.[10] There are 1.2 million in Argentina, 850,000 in Brazil, 600,000 in Pakistan and 400,000 in Italy.[11]
So far, this sounds a lot like the Pickens Plan.[12] As we all know, in July 2008, T. Boone Pickens introduced his Pickens Plan, which is based on adding more wind and solar energy to replace the natural gas that is presently used to generate electricity at power plants in America. Pickens then suggests that we use that natural gas to run our vehicles.
Our plan moves beyond the Pickens Plan. If we can produce plug in hybrid vehicles that have electric motors and gasoline engines getting 100+ miles per gallon, why could we not produce plug in hybrid vehicles with electric motors and natural gas engines getting similar comparative mileage? The answer is obvious, there is no reason whatsoever.
Natural gas burns cleaner than gasoline. While we import approximately 70% of our oil, we only import about 19% of our natural gas, with 86% of the amount we import comes from Canada and Mexico, not OPEC counties[13] .By replacing 10% of our vehicles with electric/natural gas hybrids, we could reduce our oil consumption by nearly one million barrels per day, (roughly 341 million barrels of oil per year).
Why Florida
While California has been the leader in the development of the plug-in hybrid concept, and while we have great respect and admiration for Gov. Schwarzenegger, there is nothing wrong with a little friendly competition. Competition is what makes America great, and Florida is poised to become the leader in the creation of the electric/natural gas plug-in hybrid vehicle.
Florida has a long association with military and civilian aerospace research, which translates into an ability to provide the innovation needed to create the electric/natural gas plug-in hybrid vehicle. We sent Americans to the moon from Florida and we have a large talent pool to develop, produce and distribute ENG vehicles from Florida. The St. Petersburg Times recently reported on a study by the AeA (formerly the American Electronics Association) which stated that Florida was the eighth fastest growing high tech job state in the United States. Florida recently added 5,700 net jobs mostly concentrated in engineering and computer systems design and related services. The most recent statistics (2006) reflect that Florida has the third highest number of high-tech establishments, with 22,100. Florida is clearly positioned to take on the challenge.[14]
Summary
Relative to oil reserves, natural gas reserves in North America are abundant. While we are mindful of the fact that there will be a decline in production and reserves in natural gas in the future, a transition to natural gas for transportation will provide the relief we need from the continuing dependence upon foreign oil. The beauty of natural gas for transportation is that it is a technology that is well established as well as being clean. It is here and it is now, it is not some future dream of researchers. In addition, by using plug-in hybrid technology, we can limit the amount of natural gas being used in the process. While the natural gas solution we propose is based on existing technologies, there has not yet been widespread deployment of these technologies. The time for deployment is now.
About the AuthorRobert C. Hackney is the Executive Director of the Alternative Energy Association, a Florida non-profit organization and has also practiced corporate law in Palm Beach County, Florida for over 30 years. For comments on this article, Mr. Hackney can be reached at 561-776-8600 or alternativeenergyassn@gmail.com.
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[1] U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics; http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_11.html
[2] Profit from the peak: the end of oil and the greatest investment event of the century; Hicks and Nelder, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2008
[3] CIA World Factbook; https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
[4] Ending Oil’s Stranglehold on Transportation and the Economy: The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles; Alliance Bernstein, June 2006.
[5] New York Times, September 14, 2006: Philanthropy Google’s Way: Not the Usual accessed May 4, 2007
[6] Edmunds (15 October 2007) "Detroit Show Preview: BYD's New Plug-in Hybrid on Sale Next Year" Edmunds Inside Line retrieved 26 October 2007
[7] The Early U.S. Market for PHEVs: Anticipating Consumer Awareness, Recharge Potential, Design Priorities and Energy Impacts; John Axsen and Ken Kurani, Institute of Transportation Studies, university of California, Davis, CA, August 2008.
[8] US Department of Transportation, National Household Travel Surveys, Stacy C. Davis and Susan W. Diegel, US Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 24, December 2004 and Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI) presentations.
[9] http://www.calcars.org/priusplus.html
[10] NGVAmerica, About NG Vehicles; http://www.ngvc.org/about_ngv/index.html
[11] International Association of Natural Gas Vehicles; Natural Gas Vehicles Contribute to Environmental Protection; http://www.iangv.org/tools-resources/media-information/media-releases/63-natural-gas-vehicles-contribute-to-environmental-protection.html
[12] http://www.pickensplan.com/
[13] Profit from the peak: the end of oil and the greatest investment event of the century; Hicks and Nelder, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2008
[14] http://www.tampabay.com/news/science/personaltech/article439754.ece
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